What is the year-wise UPSC Mains cutoff trend from 2013 to 2024?

Mains cutoff (written, out of 1750) for General has ranged from 564 in 2013 to a peak of 809 in 2017, settling near 729-748 in recent years. Higher Mains cutoff usually means the Prelims was easier and a stronger cohort reached Mains.

Mains (Written) Cutoff — All Categories (out of 1750)

Year	General	EWS	OBC	SC	ST	PwBD-1	PwBD-2	PwBD-3	PwBD-5
2013	564	—	534	510	510	472	—	400	—
2014	678	—	631	622	619	590	—	360	—
2015	676	—	630	622	617	612	—	365	—
2016	787	—	745	739	730	713	740	545	433
2017	809	—	770	756	749	734	745	569	526
2018	774	—	732	719	719	711	696	520	360
2019	751	696	718	706	699	663	698	374	561
2020	736	687	698	680	682	643	698	425	300
2021	745	713	707	700	700	689	706	393	444
2022	748	715	714	699	706	677	706	351	419
2023	741	706	712	694	692	673	718	396	445
2024	729	696	702	685	692	—	—	—	—

Reading the Trend

2013's low (564) reflects the syllabus overhaul that year — examiners marked stricter, candidates were unfamiliar with the new GS pattern, and the Essay was now a separate 250-mark paper.
2016-2018 peak (787-809) coincides with a generation of better-coached aspirants who came in with refined answer-writing templates and Mains-specific test-series practice.
2019 onward stability (~730-750) suggests UPSC has standardised its evaluation bands. The 2024 figure (729) is the lowest General Mains cutoff since 2015.
Category gap is remarkably tight at the Mains stage — typically 30-45 marks between General and SC/ST, much narrower than the Prelims gap.

Worked Scenario — Will I Clear Mains?

If your Mains-written aggregate is ~755 (General), here's the math:

2024 General cutoff was 729; you'd have cleared with a 26-mark buffer.
The same 755 would have failed in 2016 (787) and 2017 (809) — peak years.
For OBC at 755, you'd have cleared comfortably every year since 2013.
For interview-stage planning: 755 + average Mains interview (~175/275) = 930 — just below the General Final cutoff (~947 in 2024). You'd need 200+ in interview, OR a stronger written, to be safe.

Mentor Note

The Mains-to-Interview ratio is ~2.5x vacancies (e.g., ~2,800 candidates interviewed for 1,056 vacancies in 2024). So even crossing the Mains cutoff is no guarantee of final selection — the gap between Mains cutoff and Final cutoff (around 200 marks) is where the Interview + tail Mains scores decide your service. AIR-1 2024 Shakti Dubey scored 843 in Mains-written — that is 114 marks above the cutoff and reveals what a top-100 written looks like.

A pragmatic target: 780+ Mains-written. That positions you in the comfortable top-1500 written range across most cycles.